H2 Revises Outlook on Netherlands Due to Impact of Market Restrictions

29 April 2025

The Dutch Gaming regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) has released its 2024 Annual Report, while primarily focusing on player protection in the Dutch gambling market, this report does provide more data on the online market.  We note that full details of the Dutch market will be released later in the year in the regulator’s Market Scan report.

Total gross win in the Dutch regulated online market came in at €1.47bn – up 6% year on year compared to 2023, but the growth rate was significantly lower in the second half of the year compared to the first half of the year. Gaming remained the largest contributor accounting for over 76% of total gross win at €1.12bn, up 2% YoY, within this casino gross win of €1.09bn was up 2% YoY, while poker and bingo combined made up the remaining €33m, down 7% YoY. Betting gross win of €353m was up 22%, driven by strong growth in sportsbetting (+22% YoY / €349m), while horserace betting gross was down 20% YoY, albeit from a much lower base.

Dutch Onshore Gross Win by Product

Source: H2 Gambling Capital, April 2025

Account Numbers

The KSA no longer report the number of active accounts or the number of accounts that were inactive in the month. Instead they now report that the average number of active accounts grew from 1.1 million per month in the first half of 2024, to an average of 1.19m per month in the last six months of 2024. While the number of players isn’t captured by the KSA, as players can have multiple accounts, survey data implies that c.5.4% of the adult population were active with legal operators in 2024.  Survey data also shows that the share of players who visited legal websites averaged 91% in 2024.

Channelisation Methodology

H2GC has now updated its offshore market estimates, based on the latest affiliate and web traffic data, and taking into account data released by the KSA. The KSA published a detailed explanation of its new methodology of estimating the illegal market earlier this year, stating that onshore channelisation has fallen to c50% in Q4, compared to 58% in the first half of 2024 – so for the full year, c.55% onshore. This is based on web search data, with searches for unlicensed sites having a higher GGR per search than those of licensed sites. The KSA has used a multiple of 2.8x for the GGR per search of offshore sites versus those of onshore sites.

H2 uses a similar methodology, but uses web traffic and affiliate traffic data to get the share of traffic, and then also applies a GGR per visit multiple to take into account the fact that higher value players use unlicensed sites. H2 had previously estimated the 2024 onshore channelisation to be at 77% for 2024, based on a 2x GGR multiple. Applying the KSA’s 2.8x multiple increases the estimated size of the illegal market, and for 2024, H2 has increased it slightly more to 3.0x to take into account the new restrictions in place which have led to a significant decrease in the number of players losing more than €1,000. By updating the onshore market data, and applying the higher GGR multiple for offshore visits, the onshore channelisation falls to 61% in H2’s updated estimates, compared to c55% estimated by the KSA. This implies an offshore market of €955m – up 52% year on year. This compares to the c.€1.2bn implied by the KSA. H2 is in the process of expanding its new player survey data across a number of European markets, and as part of this, should get more data on the differential in player spend between onshore and offshore players, which should help further refine its GGR multiple differential between onshore and offshore visits.

Market Forecasts

Data for the first 3 months of the year – combined with the 41% decline in net win reported by FDJ in the market through their Unibet brand – suggests that the onshore market has deteriorated further from the latest official data reported by the KSA (up until December 2024). H2 has incorporated this into their model, with 2025 onshore online betting and gaming gross win now estimated at €1,050m – down 28% year on year – with the offshore market slightly ahead of this at €1,054m. With the next increase in tax due at the start of 2026, H2 estimates onshore channelisation to fall further in 2026 to 47%, before stabilising at this level.

Dutch Online Gambling Market Estimates (€m)

Source: H2 Gambling Capital, April 2025

Market Restrictions

Regulatory change is a key driver of offshore activity in any market, and this has been an influencing factor in the Netherlands. As well as the increased tax rate, which is also impacting the land-based market, the KSA particularly noted the increase in offshore activity since the lower monthly deposit limits came into effect on 01 October 2024.

However, of more concern are some of the proposals put forward for future changes. A number of politicians have proposed new legislation to impose a blanket ban on gambling advertising, compulsory deposit limits and play time for online casino games and ban the use of credit for gambling. However, this proposal fell short although, Dutch ministers agreed that ‘overarching playing limits’ must be included in the ongoing amendments to the KOA Act.

The Dutch government has now published its revised policy on gambling and includes the following measures.

• Raising the minimum age to 21 for participation in the riskiest games of chance – unclear which games of chance this relates too.

• There will also be stricter duty-of-care requirements for providers and an overarching deposit limit with a financial capability test.

• Significant changes to advertising rules to reduce the appeal of online gambling.

• KSA will be given more powers to monitor legal offerings more robustly whilst also having the ability to block illegal websites.

The drafting of a bill should begin in late 2025 with the bill ready for consultation in 2026. However, it is the proposal in 2024 of a total ban of online slots which is of most concern – if this were to happen, then it would largely spell the death of the onshore market in the Netherlands and be open season for the illegal market.

Summary

Even with the increased powers to the KSA, further restrictions to the onshore market will drive onshore channelisation levels even lower, which would be detrimental to the overarching aim of player protection. It is already clear that high-value players, in particular, look to the offshore market for their gambling needs. The Dutch government’s intention may be to reduce the appeal of online gambling, but in reality, they are only reducing the appeal of legal, regulated online gambling – and are in danger of pushing mass market players into the illegal market too.

 Disclaimer

Whilst great care has been taken in the preparation of this publication H2 Gambling Capital take no responsibility whatsoever for the accuracy or completeness of the data and information provided within this Report. Although we have sought to ensure that all of the data and information contained herein have been obtained from/based on reliable sources its accuracy cannot be guaranteed, and no warranty is given as to the correctness of the information in this publication.

This document may also contain forward-looking statements and opinions that involve uncertainties and assumptions. All estimates, opinions and forward-looking statements contained within this Report merely constitute a judgment as at the date of the document. As such, should any of these uncertainties materialise or any of these assumptions prove incorrect, betting and gaming in the jurisdictions covered by this Report could differ materially from H2 Gambling Capital’s expectations outline within this document. In such an event H2 Gambling Capital accept no liability whatsoever for the accuracy of these and does not intend to update these forward-looking statements.

It should be noted that as an updated version of the original Report all of the summary statistics contained within this report have been updated in order to take account of H2 Gambling Capital’s revised forecasts for the industry. Although every effort has been taken in order to ensure that all figures outlined within the report have been updated H2 Gambling Capital take no responsibility for any that might have been missed during the re-editing process.