Gaming Economics’ Lee Richardson has been hard at work producing an analysis of betting on the FIFA World Cup, the most popular single-sporting event on the planet.
Initial findings, results, trends and observations…
The previous event, held in South Africa in 2010, was the first global football event dominated by in-running betting (IRB), with an estimated 55% – 60% share of all bets struck on the event
During the subsequent 2012 UEFA Euro Championships, this
share had risen to an estimated 65% – 70%
Accordingly, some analysts, ahead of this tournament, predicted a share of 70%+ for the 2014 event in Brazil
However, others, including Gaming Economics, highlighted the potential “anti-social” nature of the scheduled start times for UK and European audiences, and the possible dampening effect this might have in IRB activity, turnover and margin
Fig 1. below shows the per-game 1X2 share of IRB, showing a broad range of 32% – 80% and an overall estimated average of 58% across the 64 game tournament, making it broadly on a par with the 2010 event.
Fig 2., which follows, also clearly highlights the relative performance of total per-game betting revenue as determined by kick-off time, with as much as 25% more revenue being
wagered on games at the most popular starting slot (20.00hrs BST, Index 100) when compared with the least pop
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